Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Al NasrExpected goals 1.80 vs 1.05. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Al Nasr and +1.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.80 vs Al Nasr 1.05.
That gives 54% home win, 24% draw, 22% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 0.1 pts, draw 1.3 pts, away -1.4 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Al Nasr and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win | 54% | 1.85 | 1.65 | -11% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | 3.90 | -3% |
| Al Nasr win | 21% | 4.75 | 3.90 | -18% |
| Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.39 | - | - |
| Al Nasr (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.57 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 54% / 24% / 22% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 54% / 23% / 23% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.