Al Ain
AjmanExpected goals 2.76 vs 1.05. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Ajman and +2.5 goals
22h agoHazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 1:15:00 PM
Expected goals: Al Ain 2.76 vs Ajman 1.05.
That gives 73% home win, 16% draw, 11% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 2.9 pts, draw -3.1 pts, away 0.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Ajman and +2.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ain win | 73% | 1.38 | 1.28 | -7% |
| Draw | 16% | 6.21 | 4.75 | -23% |
| Ajman win | 11% | 8.87 | 8.00 | -10% |
| Al Ain (draw no bet) | 87% | 1.16 | - | - |
| Ajman (draw no bet) | 13% | 7.44 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 73% / 16% / 11% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 4.75 | 8.00 | 70% / 19% / 11% | 11.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.