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FA Cup · Group Stage - 5Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 02:30 PM
Al-Nahda
vs
Sohar
My Model1
43%29%28%
xG 1.3-1.0U2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 1.29 vs 0.98. Teams rate closely on recent goals.

22h ago
API-Football1
45%45%10%

Double chance : Al-Nahda or draw

23h ago
Bookmakers1
43%28%29%
U2.5
Bet365 · 23h ago

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 2:30:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Al-Nahda 1.29 vs Sohar 0.98.

That gives 43% home win, 29% draw, 28% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 0.1 pts, draw 1.3 pts, away -1.4 pts.

API-Football says: Double chance : Al-Nahda or draw

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Al-Nahda win
43%		2.352.10-11%
Draw
30%		3.313.20-3%
Sohar win
27%		3.673.10-16%
Al-Nahda (draw no bet)
61%		1.64--
Sohar (draw no bet)
39%		2.56--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

Bookmaker1X2Fair 1 / X / 2Margin
My Model43% / 29% / 28%
Bet3652.103.203.1043% / 28% / 29%11.1%

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Al-Nahda

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Sohar

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Al-Nahda recent form

  • D9/25/2026Ibri 0-0 Al-Nahda
  • D9/21/2026Al-Nahda 1-1 Saham
  • D9/16/2026Al-Nahda 1-1 Al Taawon
  • D9/10/2026Al-Nahda 1-1 Al Seeb
  • W9/5/2026Al-Shabab 2-3 Al-Nahda

Sohar recent form

  • L9/24/2026Sohar 1-3 Al Seeb
  • D9/11/2026Sohar 0-0 Dhofar
  • W9/6/2026Fanja 0-1 Sohar
  • D8/31/2026Sohar 0-0 Ibri
  • W8/25/2026Ibri 1-3 Sohar

Head to head