Al-Shabab
SahamExpected goals 2.16 vs 0.85. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : Al-Shabab or draw and -3.5 goals
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 2:25:00 PM
Expected goals: Al-Shabab 2.16 vs Saham 0.85.
That gives 67% home win, 20% draw, 13% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 7.4 pts, draw -4.9 pts, away -2.5 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Al-Shabab or draw and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Shabab win | 67% | 1.50 | 1.50 | -0% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.87 | 3.60 | -26% |
| Saham win | 13% | 7.81 | 5.75 | -26% |
| Al-Shabab (draw no bet) | 84% | 1.19 | - | - |
| Saham (draw no bet) | 16% | 6.21 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 67% / 20% / 13% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.60 | 5.75 | 60% / 25% / 16% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.