Unirea Bascov
Jiul PetroşaniExpected goals 1.54 vs 1.23. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Jiul Petroşani
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Unirea Bascov 1.54 vs Jiul Petroşani 1.23.
That gives 44% home win, 26% draw, 30% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 0.3 pts, draw 0.7 pts, away -1.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Jiul Petroşani
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unirea Bascov win | 44% | 2.30 | 2.05 | -11% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | 3.50 | -6% |
| Jiul Petroşani win | 29% | 3.39 | 2.90 | -15% |
| Unirea Bascov (draw no bet) | 60% | 1.68 | - | - |
| Jiul Petroşani (draw no bet) | 40% | 2.48 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 44% / 26% / 30% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 44% / 26% / 31% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.