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Liga III - Serie 4 · Group 4 - 7Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 12:00 PM
Dunarea Calarasi
vs
Agigea
My Model1
48%28%24%
xG 1.4-0.9U2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 1.44 vs 0.94. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football1
35%35%30%

Double chance : Dunarea Calarasi or draw

21h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Dunarea Calarasi 1.44 vs Agigea 0.94.

That gives 48% home win, 28% draw, 24% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Double chance : Dunarea Calarasi or draw

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Dunarea Calarasi win
48%
2.10--
Draw
29%
3.48--
Agigea win
24%
4.24--
Dunarea Calarasi (draw no bet)
67%
1.50--
Agigea (draw no bet)
33%
3.02--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Dunarea Calarasi

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Agigea

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Dunarea Calarasi recent form

  • W9/26/2026Portul Constanta 1-2 Dunarea Calarasi
  • W9/23/2026Dunarea Calarasi 3-2 Sporting Lieşti
  • W9/19/2026Gloria Băneasa 0-2 Dunarea Calarasi
  • L9/11/2026Dunarea Calarasi 0-3 Recolta Gheorghe Doja
  • L9/5/2026Axiopolis 3-0 Dunarea Calarasi

Agigea recent form

  • L9/26/2026Agigea 0-1 Înainte Modelu
  • W9/23/2026Agigea 2-1 Unirea Braniştea
  • W9/19/2026Portul Constanta 0-1 Agigea
  • W9/12/2026Agigea 2-0 Sporting Lieşti
  • D9/5/2026Gloria Băneasa 1-1 Agigea

Head to head