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FKF Premier League · Regular Season - 5Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 12:00 PM
Tusker
vs
Mara Sugar
My Model1
35%35%30%
xG 0.9-0.8U2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 0.93 vs 0.84. Teams rate closely on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football1
50%50%0%

Double chance : Tusker or draw

21h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Tusker 0.93 vs Mara Sugar 0.84.

That gives 35% home win, 35% draw, 30% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Double chance : Tusker or draw

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Tusker win
35%		2.87--
Draw
35%		2.83--
Mara Sugar win
30%		3.35--
Tusker (draw no bet)
54%		1.86--
Mara Sugar (draw no bet)
46%		2.17--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Tusker

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Mara Sugar

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Tusker recent form

  • D5/31/2026Tusker 1-1 APS Bomet
  • L5/27/2026Ulinzi Stars 2-0 Tusker
  • L5/24/2026Bandari 1-0 Tusker
  • W5/10/2026Tusker 2-0 Bidco United
  • L5/6/2026Nairobi United 1-0 Tusker

Mara Sugar recent form

  • L5/31/2026Murang'a SEAL 2-1 Mara Sugar
  • D5/27/2026Mara Sugar 0-0 GOR Mahia
  • L5/16/2026Mara Sugar 0-1 Mathare United
  • W5/13/2026Mara Sugar 1-0 Shabana
  • L5/9/2026AFC Leopards 2-1 Mara Sugar

Head to head