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FKF Premier League · Regular Season - 5SplitFri, Oct 2 12:00 PM
Shabana
vs
Police
My Model2
29%35%35%
xG 0.8-0.9U2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 0.80 vs 0.91. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football1
33%33%33%

No predictions available

21h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Shabana 0.80 vs Police 0.91.

That gives 29% home win, 35% draw, 35% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: No predictions available

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Shabana win
29%		3.45--
Draw
36%		2.78--
Police win
35%		2.85--
Shabana (draw no bet)
45%		2.21--
Police (draw no bet)
55%		1.83--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Shabana

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Police

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Shabana recent form

  • L5/31/2026Shabana 1-2 KCB
  • D5/24/2026Sofapaka 1-1 Shabana
  • W5/17/2026Bidco United 0-1 Shabana
  • L5/13/2026Mara Sugar 1-0 Shabana
  • D5/9/2026Shabana 0-0 Ulinzi Stars

Police recent form

  • D5/31/2026Police 1-1 Homeboyz
  • D5/27/2026Police 1-1 Kariobangi Sharks
  • D5/24/2026Nairobi United 0-0 Police
  • D5/10/2026GOR Mahia 1-1 Police
  • W5/6/2026Police 2-1 Murang'a SEAL

Head to head