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FKF Premier League · Regular Season - 5SplitFri, Oct 2 12:00 PM
AFC Leopards
vs
Homeboyz
My Model1
42%29%29%
xG 1.3-1.1U2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 1.34 vs 1.07. Teams rate closely on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football2
10%45%45%

Double chance : draw or Homeboyz

21h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: AFC Leopards 1.34 vs Homeboyz 1.07.

That gives 42% home win, 29% draw, 29% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Homeboyz

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
AFC Leopards win
42%		2.39--
Draw
29%		3.41--
Homeboyz win
29%		3.47--
AFC Leopards (draw no bet)
59%		1.69--
Homeboyz (draw no bet)
41%		2.45--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

AFC Leopards

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Homeboyz

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

AFC Leopards recent form

  • L5/31/2026AFC Leopards 1-2 Bidco United
  • L5/24/2026APS Bomet 2-1 AFC Leopards
  • W5/16/2026Homeboyz 1-2 AFC Leopards
  • W5/13/2026Ulinzi Stars 0-2 AFC Leopards
  • W5/9/2026AFC Leopards 2-1 Mara Sugar

Homeboyz recent form

  • D5/31/2026Police 1-1 Homeboyz
  • D5/23/2026Kariobangi Sharks 2-2 Homeboyz
  • L5/16/2026Homeboyz 1-2 AFC Leopards
  • L5/10/2026Murang'a SEAL 1-0 Homeboyz
  • L5/3/2026Homeboyz 0-1 GOR Mahia

Head to head