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Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 06:00 PM
Düren Merzenich
vs
TuS BW Königsdorf
My Model1
72%15%14%
xG 3.2-1.4O2.5BTTS yes

Expected goals 3.20 vs 1.45. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.

21h ago
API-Football1
50%50%0%

Combo Double chance : Düren Merzenich or draw and +1.5 goals

23h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Düren Merzenich 3.20 vs TuS BW Königsdorf 1.45.

That gives 72% home win, 15% draw, 14% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Düren Merzenich or draw and +1.5 goals

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Düren Merzenich win
71%		1.40--
Draw
15%		6.74--
TuS BW Königsdorf win
14%		7.29--
Düren Merzenich (draw no bet)
84%		1.19--
TuS BW Königsdorf (draw no bet)
16%		6.21--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Düren Merzenich

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

TuS BW Königsdorf

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Düren Merzenich recent form

  • L9/25/2026Wegberg-Beeck 2-1 Düren Merzenich
  • L9/20/2026Düren Merzenich 1-2 Eintracht Hohkeppel
  • W9/13/2026Bornheim 1-3 Düren Merzenich
  • D9/6/2026Düren Merzenich 0-0 Hürth
  • L8/28/2026VfL Vichttal 6-2 Düren Merzenich

TuS BW Königsdorf recent form

  • L9/27/2026TuS BW Königsdorf 1-4 Hennef 05
  • L9/11/2026Wegberg-Beeck 7-1 TuS BW Königsdorf
  • L9/6/2026TuS BW Königsdorf 0-7 Eintracht Hohkeppel
  • L8/30/2026Bornheim 4-1 TuS BW Königsdorf
  • W6/7/2026VfL Vichttal 0-2 TuS BW Königsdorf

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