Velden
TreibachMy Model1
46%25%29%
xG 1.6-1.3O2.5BTTS yes
Expected goals 1.65 vs 1.28. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoAPI-Football1
45%45%10%
Double chance : Velden or draw
22h agoBookmakers1
47%24%29%
O2.5
Bet365 · 22h agoVeldenTreibachKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Velden 1.65 vs Treibach 1.28.
That gives 46% home win, 25% draw, 29% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -1.5 pts, draw 1.3 pts, away 0.2 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Velden or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velden win | 45% | 2.21 | 1.91 | -14% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | 3.75 | -3% |
| Treibach win | 29% | 3.47 | 3.10 | -11% |
| Velden (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.64 | - | - |
| Treibach (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.57 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 46% / 25% / 29% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.10 | 47% / 24% / 29% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Velden
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Treibach
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Velden recent form
- D9/25/2026Velden 0-0 Völkermarkt
- W9/19/2026Bleiburg 2-4 Velden
- W9/13/2026Wolfsberger AC II 0-1 Velden
- D9/8/2026Velden 2-2 Austria Klagenfurt
- W8/29/2026Donau Klagenfurt 2-3 Velden
Treibach recent form
- W9/27/2026Treibach 3-0 Austria Klagenfurt
- L9/18/2026Völkermarkt 3-0 Treibach
- D9/11/2026Treibach 0-0 Donau Klagenfurt
- L9/4/2026Bleiburg 3-1 Treibach
- W8/28/2026Treibach 4-0 Wolfsberg
Head to head
- D8/14/2026Treibach 0-0 Velden