Santos Laguna W
Puebla WExpected goals 2.60 vs 1.34. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
54m agoCombo Double chance : Santos Laguna W or draw and +1.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Santos Laguna W 2.60 vs Puebla W 1.34.
That gives 64% home win, 19% draw, 17% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -3.6 pts, draw 0.3 pts, away 3.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Santos Laguna W or draw and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna W win | 64% | 1.56 | 1.33 | -15% |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | 4.75 | -12% |
| Puebla W win | 17% | 5.73 | 6.50 | +13% |
| Santos Laguna W (draw no bet) | 79% | 1.27 | - | - |
| Puebla W (draw no bet) | 21% | 4.66 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 64% / 19% / 17% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 67% / 19% / 14% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.