Istres
ChateaurouxExpected goals 1.45 vs 0.90. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Chateauroux and -3.5 goals
22h agoBookmaker odds not available yet
Stade Parsemain, Fos-sur-Mer · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Istres 1.45 vs Chateauroux 0.90.
That gives 49% home win, 28% draw, 23% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Chateauroux and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istres win | 49% | 2.04 | - | - |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | - | - |
| Chateauroux win | 22% | 4.47 | - | - |
| Istres (draw no bet) | 69% | 1.46 | - | - |
| Chateauroux (draw no bet) | 31% | 3.19 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
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Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
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