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Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 11Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 05:00 PM
Hertha Wiesbach
vs
Diefflen
My Model1
70%15%15%
xG 3.0-1.4O2.5BTTS yes

Expected goals 3.04 vs 1.43. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.

21h ago
API-Football1
45%45%10%

Combo Double chance : Hertha Wiesbach or draw and +1.5 goals

22h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Hertha Wiesbach 3.04 vs Diefflen 1.43.

That gives 70% home win, 15% draw, 15% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Hertha Wiesbach or draw and +1.5 goals

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Hertha Wiesbach win
69%
1.44--
Draw
16%
6.33--
Diefflen win
15%
6.78--
Hertha Wiesbach (draw no bet)
82%
1.21--
Diefflen (draw no bet)
18%
5.71--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Hertha Wiesbach

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Diefflen

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Hertha Wiesbach recent form

  • L9/26/2026Mechtersheim 4-1 Hertha Wiesbach
  • W9/20/2026Hertha Wiesbach 3-2 Wormatia Worms
  • W9/12/2026Hertha Wiesbach 2-0 Ahrweiler
  • D9/9/2026TuS Koblenz 1-1 Hertha Wiesbach
  • L9/5/2026Hertha Wiesbach 1-4 Gau-Odernheim

Diefflen recent form

  • D9/26/2026Diefflen 0-0 TuS Koblenz
  • L9/20/2026Gau-Odernheim 3-0 Diefflen
  • L9/12/2026Diefflen 0-7 RW Wittlich
  • L9/8/2026Gonsenheim 4-0 Diefflen
  • L9/4/2026Diefflen 0-2 Auersmacher

Head to head