Proxy
ItesalatExpected goals 1.25 vs 0.85. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Itesalat and -3.5 goals
22h agoProxy Club Stadium, Abu El Matamir · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Proxy 1.25 vs Itesalat 0.85.
That gives 45% home win, 30% draw, 25% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 13.5 pts, draw -2.3 pts, away -11.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Itesalat and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proxy win | 45% | 2.24 | 2.88 | +28% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | 2.75 | -14% |
| Itesalat win | 24% | 4.13 | 2.50 | -40% |
| Proxy (draw no bet) | 65% | 1.54 | - | - |
| Itesalat (draw no bet) | 35% | 2.84 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 30% / 25% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 31% / 33% / 36% | 11.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.