El Dakhleya
Maleyet Kafr El ZayiatExpected goals 0.82 vs 1.09. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat and -3.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Expected goals: El Dakhleya 0.82 vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1.09.
That gives 27% home win, 33% draw, 41% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 0.2 pts, draw -0.4 pts, away 0.2 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Dakhleya win | 26% | 3.83 | 3.40 | -11% |
| Draw | 33% | 2.99 | 2.70 | -10% |
| Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win | 40% | 2.47 | 2.20 | -11% |
| El Dakhleya (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.55 | - | - |
| Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.65 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 27% / 33% / 41% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 2.20 | 26% / 33% / 41% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.