Bayer Leverkusen W
Werder Bremen WExpected goals 1.59 vs 1.31. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : draw or Werder Bremen W
21h agoUlrich-Haberland-Stadion, Leverkusen · Referee Julia Boike · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen W 1.59 vs Werder Bremen W 1.31.
That gives 44% home win, 26% draw, 31% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -11.6 pts, draw 2.7 pts, away 8.9 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Werder Bremen W
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen W win | 43% | 2.32 | 1.62 | -30% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 3.90 | +3% |
| Werder Bremen W win | 31% | 3.27 | 4.10 | +25% |
| Bayer Leverkusen W (draw no bet) | 58% | 1.71 | - | - |
| Werder Bremen W (draw no bet) | 42% | 2.41 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 44% / 26% / 31% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.10 | 55% / 23% / 22% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.