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Persha Liga · Regular Season - 10Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 11:00 AM
SK Poltava
vs
Chernihiv
My Model1
42%29%29%
xG 1.3-1.0U2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 1.30 vs 1.03. Teams rate closely on recent goals.

21h ago
API-Football1
45%45%10%

Combo Double chance : SK Poltava or draw and -3.5 goals

22h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: SK Poltava 1.30 vs Chernihiv 1.03.

That gives 42% home win, 29% draw, 29% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Combo Double chance : SK Poltava or draw and -3.5 goals

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
SK Poltava win
42%
2.40--
Draw
30%
3.34--
Chernihiv win
28%
3.52--
SK Poltava (draw no bet)
59%
1.68--
Chernihiv (draw no bet)
41%
2.46--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

SK Poltava

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Chernihiv

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

SK Poltava recent form

  • L9/26/2026Kulykiv 2-1 SK Poltava
  • W9/20/2026SK Poltava 3-0 Metal Kharkiv
  • L9/12/2026Lokomotiv Kyiv 2-1 SK Poltava
  • D9/4/2026SK Poltava 0-0 Inhulets
  • W8/28/2026Kolos Kovalivka II 0-1 SK Poltava

Chernihiv recent form

  • L9/27/2026Metal Kharkiv 2-0 Chernihiv
  • L9/11/2026UCSA 3-2 Chernihiv
  • W9/5/2026Chernihiv 1-0 Nyva Ternopil
  • L8/29/2026Oleksandria 1-0 Chernihiv
  • W8/23/2026LSTM Lutsk 1-2 Chernihiv

Head to head

No past matches stored.