Caerau (Ely)
Afan LidoExpected goals 2.32 vs 1.29. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : Caerau (Ely) or draw
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Caerau (Ely) 2.32 vs Afan Lido 1.29.
That gives 60% home win, 20% draw, 20% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 0.3 pts, draw -1.3 pts, away 1.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Caerau (Ely) or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) win | 60% | 1.67 | 1.50 | -10% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.86 | 4.20 | -14% |
| Afan Lido win | 20% | 5.10 | 4.75 | -7% |
| Caerau (Ely) (draw no bet) | 75% | 1.33 | - | - |
| Afan Lido (draw no bet) | 25% | 4.05 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 60% / 20% / 20% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 60% / 21% / 19% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.