llanelli AFC
Baglan DragonsExpected goals 0.91 vs 1.61. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Baglan Dragons
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Expected goals: llanelli AFC 0.91 vs Baglan Dragons 1.61.
That gives 21% home win, 26% draw, 53% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -8.3 pts, draw 1.2 pts, away 7.1 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Baglan Dragons
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| llanelli AFC win | 20% | 4.92 | 3.10 | -37% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | 3.60 | -3% |
| Baglan Dragons win | 53% | 1.89 | 1.95 | +3% |
| llanelli AFC (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.60 | - | - |
| Baglan Dragons (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.38 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 21% / 26% / 53% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 29% / 25% / 46% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.