Carmarthen Town
Llantwit MajorExpected goals 2.59 vs 1.50. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Winner : Carmarthen Town and +1.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Carmarthen Town 2.59 vs Llantwit Major 1.50.
That gives 61% home win, 19% draw, 21% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -4.1 pts, draw -0.2 pts, away 4.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : Carmarthen Town and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmarthen Town win | 61% | 1.65 | 1.38 | -16% |
| Draw | 19% | 5.25 | 4.75 | -10% |
| Llantwit Major win | 20% | 4.89 | 5.50 | +12% |
| Carmarthen Town (draw no bet) | 75% | 1.34 | - | - |
| Llantwit Major (draw no bet) | 25% | 3.96 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 61% / 19% / 21% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 65% / 19% / 16% | 11.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.