← All matches
FAW Championship · North - 10Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 06:45 PM
Denbigh Town
vs
Holyhead Hotspur
My Model1
47%24%29%
xG 1.8-1.4O2.5BTTS yes

Expected goals 1.84 vs 1.42. Teams rate closely on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football1
45%45%10%

Winner : Denbigh Town

21h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Denbigh Town 1.84 vs Holyhead Hotspur 1.42.

That gives 47% home win, 24% draw, 29% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Winner : Denbigh Town

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Denbigh Town win
47%		2.14--
Draw
24%		4.12--
Holyhead Hotspur win
29%		3.45--
Denbigh Town (draw no bet)
62%		1.62--
Holyhead Hotspur (draw no bet)
38%		2.61--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Denbigh Town

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Holyhead Hotspur

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Denbigh Town recent form

  • L9/26/2026Brickfield Rangers 2-0 Denbigh Town
  • W9/11/2026Denbigh Town 5-2 Bala Town
  • L9/5/2026Newtown AFC 1-0 Denbigh Town
  • L8/31/2026Denbigh Town 1-3 Rhyl
  • D8/28/2026Penrhyncoch 2-2 Denbigh Town

Holyhead Hotspur recent form

  • L9/26/2026Holyhead Hotspur 0-2 Guilsfield
  • L9/12/2026Holyhead Hotspur 0-1 Newtown AFC
  • L9/5/2026Llanuwchllyn 4-0 Holyhead Hotspur
  • D8/31/2026Holyhead Hotspur 2-2 Porthmadog
  • L8/21/2026Holyhead Hotspur 2-3 Bangor City 1876 FC

Head to head