Hranice
Líšeň IIExpected goals 0.79 vs 1.91. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Líšeň II
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Hranice 0.79 vs Líšeň II 1.91.
That gives 14% home win, 22% draw, 63% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -5.4 pts, draw 1.8 pts, away 3.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Líšeň II
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hranice win | 14% | 7.15 | 4.50 | -37% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | 4.33 | -0% |
| Líšeň II win | 63% | 1.59 | 1.50 | -6% |
| Hranice (draw no bet) | 18% | 5.50 | - | - |
| Líšeň II (draw no bet) | 82% | 1.22 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 14% / 22% / 63% | ||||
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.50 | 20% / 21% / 60% | 12.0% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.