VSK Århus
BrabrandExpected goals 1.49 vs 0.70. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : VSK Århus or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: VSK Århus 1.49 vs Brabrand 0.70.
That gives 56% home win, 28% draw, 17% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 8.5 pts, draw 1.1 pts, away -9.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : VSK Århus or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSK Århus win | 55% | 1.81 | 1.91 | +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | 3.40 | -4% |
| Brabrand win | 17% | 6.03 | 3.40 | -44% |
| VSK Århus (draw no bet) | 77% | 1.30 | - | - |
| Brabrand (draw no bet) | 23% | 4.34 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 56% / 28% / 17% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 47% / 26% / 26% | 11.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.