Naestved
Nykobing FCExpected goals 1.06 vs 1.82. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Naestved or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Naestved 1.06 vs Nykobing FC 1.82.
That gives 21% home win, 24% draw, 55% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -13.1 pts, draw -3.5 pts, away 16.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Naestved or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naestved win | 21% | 4.75 | 2.60 | -45% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | 3.25 | -20% |
| Nykobing FC win | 54% | 1.84 | 2.35 | +28% |
| Naestved (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.58 | - | - |
| Nykobing FC (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.39 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 21% / 24% / 55% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.35 | 34% / 28% / 38% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.