Oberwart
SV HornExpected goals 1.85 vs 1.18. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : Oberwart or draw
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Oberwart 1.85 vs SV Horn 1.18.
That gives 53% home win, 24% draw, 24% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -1.2 pts, draw 1.3 pts, away -0.1 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Oberwart or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oberwart win | 52% | 1.92 | 1.67 | -13% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | 4.00 | -2% |
| SV Horn win | 23% | 4.28 | 3.80 | -11% |
| Oberwart (draw no bet) | 69% | 1.45 | - | - |
| SV Horn (draw no bet) | 31% | 3.23 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 53% / 24% / 24% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 54% / 22% / 24% | 11.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.