Real Madrid II
Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals 1.52 vs 1.22. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
53m agoCombo Double chance : draw or Atlético Madrid II and -3.5 goals
21h agoReferee D. Lopez Jimenez · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Expected goals: Real Madrid II 1.52 vs Atlético Madrid II 1.22.
That gives 43% home win, 28% draw, 29% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -14.3 pts, draw 5.1 pts, away 9.2 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Atlético Madrid II and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid II win | 43% | 2.31 | 1.57 | -32% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | 3.90 | +6% |
| Atlético Madrid II win | 30% | 3.38 | 4.50 | +33% |
| Real Madrid II (draw no bet) | 59% | 1.68 | - | - |
| Atlético Madrid II (draw no bet) | 41% | 2.46 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 43% / 28% / 29% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 57% / 23% / 20% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.