Real Avilés
LugoMy Model1
39%29%32%
xG 1.3-1.1U2.5BTTS no
Expected goals 1.25 vs 1.10. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoAPI-Football2
10%45%45%
Double chance : draw or Lugo
22h agoBookmakers1
40%29%31%
U2.5BTTS yes
Bet365 · 22h agoReal AvilésLugoReferee M. Cotero · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Real Avilés 1.25 vs Lugo 1.10.
That gives 39% home win, 29% draw, 32% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -1.0 pts, draw 0.3 pts, away 0.7 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Lugo
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Avilés win | 39% | 2.59 | 2.25 | -13% |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | 3.10 | -7% |
| Lugo win | 31% | 3.19 | 2.88 | -10% |
| Real Avilés (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.81 | - | - |
| Lugo (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.23 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 39% / 29% / 32% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.88 | 40% / 29% / 31% | 11.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Real Avilés
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Lugo
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Real Avilés recent form
- D9/27/2026Barakaldo 3-3 Real Avilés
- D9/19/2026CD Coria 1-1 Real Avilés
- W9/12/2026Real Avilés 3-1 Unionistas de Salamanca
- L9/6/2026Athletic Club II 2-1 Real Avilés
- L8/28/2026Real Avilés 0-1 Pontevedra
Lugo recent form
- W9/26/2026Lugo 1-0 Racing Ferrol
- W9/20/2026Zamora 1-2 Lugo
- W9/13/2026Lugo 1-0 CD Coria
- D9/4/2026Ponferradina 0-0 Lugo
- W8/30/2026Unionistas de Salamanca 1-3 Lugo
Head to head
- L1/25/2026Real Avilés 1-2 Lugo
- D9/6/2025Lugo 0-0 Real Avilés