Eldense
OviedoExpected goals 0.97 vs 1.11. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Oviedo and -3.5 goals
20h agoNuevo Pepico Amat, Alicante · Referee Rafael Sanchez Lopez · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Eldense 0.97 vs Oviedo 1.11.
That gives 31% home win, 31% draw, 38% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -3.4 pts, draw -0.1 pts, away 3.5 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Oviedo and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense win | 30% | 3.30 | 2.75 | -17% |
| Draw | 32% | 3.11 | 3.00 | -3% |
| Oviedo win | 38% | 2.67 | 2.75 | +3% |
| Eldense (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.24 | - | - |
| Oviedo (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.81 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 31% / 31% / 38% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 34% / 31% / 34% | 6.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.