Polonia Nysa
Miedź Legnica IIExpected goals 1.48 vs 2.59. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Winner : Miedź Legnica II and +2.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Polonia Nysa 1.48 vs Miedź Legnica II 2.59.
That gives 20% home win, 19% draw, 61% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -6.9 pts, draw -4.4 pts, away 11.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : Miedź Legnica II and +2.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Nysa win | 20% | 4.98 | 3.30 | -34% |
| Draw | 19% | 5.26 | 3.90 | -26% |
| Miedź Legnica II win | 61% | 1.64 | 1.80 | +10% |
| Polonia Nysa (draw no bet) | 25% | 4.04 | - | - |
| Miedź Legnica II (draw no bet) | 75% | 1.33 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 20% / 19% / 61% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 27% / 23% / 50% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.