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Oberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 10Sources agreeFri, Oct 2 05:30 PM
Harksheide
vs
HEBC
My Model2
35%28%37%
xG 1.2-1.3U2.5BTTS yes

Expected goals 1.24 vs 1.30. Teams rate closely on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football2
10%45%45%

Double chance : draw or HEBC

21h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 5:30:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Harksheide 1.24 vs HEBC 1.30.

That gives 35% home win, 28% draw, 37% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Double chance : draw or HEBC

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Harksheide win
34%		2.92--
Draw
29%		3.48--
HEBC win
37%		2.70--
Harksheide (draw no bet)
48%		2.08--
HEBC (draw no bet)
52%		1.92--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Harksheide

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

HEBC

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Harksheide recent form

  • D9/26/2026Altona 93 1-1 Harksheide
  • D9/18/2026Harksheide 2-2 Buchholz
  • W9/11/2026ETSV Hamburg 2-3 Harksheide
  • L9/4/2026Harksheide 1-3 Concordia
  • D8/30/2026Teutonia Ottensen 0-0 Harksheide

HEBC recent form

  • W9/27/2026HEBC 1-0 Pinneberg
  • L9/19/2026Altona 93 2-0 HEBC
  • L9/13/2026HEBC 2-3 Victoria Hamburg
  • L9/6/2026Buchholz 3-2 HEBC
  • L8/28/2026HEBC 0-1 Vorwärts-Wacker 04

Head to head