MŠK Senec
Spartak MyjavaExpected goals 0.92 vs 1.60. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : draw or Spartak Myjava
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Expected goals: MŠK Senec 0.92 vs Spartak Myjava 1.60.
That gives 21% home win, 26% draw, 53% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -3.7 pts, draw 2.0 pts, away 1.7 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Spartak Myjava
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MŠK Senec win | 21% | 4.83 | 3.60 | -25% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | 3.70 | -0% |
| Spartak Myjava win | 52% | 1.91 | 1.75 | -8% |
| MŠK Senec (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.53 | - | - |
| Spartak Myjava (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.40 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 21% / 26% / 53% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.75 | 25% / 24% / 51% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.