Strabane Athletic
Armagh CityExpected goals 2.04 vs 1.04. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Strabane Athletic or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Strabane Athletic 2.04 vs Armagh City 1.04.
That gives 60% home win, 22% draw, 18% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 7.2 pts, draw -2.4 pts, away -4.9 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Strabane Athletic or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strabane Athletic win | 60% | 1.68 | 1.70 | +1% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | 3.70 | -17% |
| Armagh City win | 18% | 5.60 | 3.90 | -30% |
| Strabane Athletic (draw no bet) | 77% | 1.30 | - | - |
| Armagh City (draw no bet) | 23% | 4.35 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 60% / 22% / 18% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 53% / 24% / 23% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.