Minija
Kauno Žalgiris IIMy Model1
80%13%7%
xG 2.8-0.7O2.5BTTS no
Expected goals 2.81 vs 0.74. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoAPI-Football1
45%45%10%
Winner : Minija
21h agoBookmakers1
76%15%9%
O2.5
Bet365 · 21h agoMinijaKauno Žalgiris IIKickoff 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Minija 2.81 vs Kauno Žalgiris II 0.74.
That gives 80% home win, 13% draw, 7% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 4.1 pts, draw -1.8 pts, away -2.3 pts.
API-Football says: Winner : Minija
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minija win | 80% | 1.26 | 1.20 | -4% |
| Draw | 14% | 7.28 | 6.00 | -18% |
| Kauno Žalgiris II win | 7% | 15.04 | 10.00 | -34% |
| Minija (draw no bet) | 92% | 1.08 | - | - |
| Kauno Žalgiris II (draw no bet) | 8% | 12.98 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 80% / 13% / 7% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 | 76% / 15% / 9% | 10.0% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Minija
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Minija recent form
- W9/19/2026Minija 2-1 Neptūną Klaipėda
- W9/12/2026Dainava 0-3 Minija
- W9/5/2026Minija 3-0 Transinvest 2
- W9/1/2026Minija 3-2 Dainava
- W8/28/2026FA Šiauliai II 1-2 Minija
Kauno Žalgiris II recent form
- W9/19/2026Kauno Žalgiris II 3-2 Garliava
- W9/12/2026Kauno Žalgiris II 2-1 Ekranas
- L9/4/2026Be1 NFA 1-0 Kauno Žalgiris II
- W8/29/2026Kauno Žalgiris II 3-0 Hegelmann II
- W8/14/2026Kauno Žalgiris II 2-1 Jonava
Head to head
- W4/19/2026Kauno Žalgiris II 0-4 Minija
- W9/13/2025Kauno Žalgiris II 1-2 Minija
- W5/10/2025Minija 2-0 Kauno Žalgiris II