Garliava
DainavaExpected goals 0.95 vs 1.14. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Dainava
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Garliava 0.95 vs Dainava 1.14.
That gives 30% home win, 31% draw, 39% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 3.2 pts, draw 6.4 pts, away -9.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Dainava
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garliava win | 29% | 3.43 | 3.40 | -1% |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | 3.60 | +15% |
| Dainava win | 39% | 2.57 | 1.83 | -29% |
| Garliava (draw no bet) | 43% | 2.33 | - | - |
| Dainava (draw no bet) | 57% | 1.75 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 30% / 31% / 39% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.83 | 26% / 25% / 49% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.