Biwako Shiga
Roasso KumamotoExpected goals 1.25 vs 1.12. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Roasso Kumamoto
22h agoHeiwado HATO Stadium, Shiga · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Biwako Shiga 1.25 vs Roasso Kumamoto 1.12.
That gives 39% home win, 29% draw, 32% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 6.6 pts, draw 1.9 pts, away -8.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Roasso Kumamoto
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biwako Shiga win | 38% | 2.62 | 2.80 | +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | 3.30 | -1% |
| Roasso Kumamoto win | 32% | 3.14 | 2.20 | -30% |
| Biwako Shiga (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.83 | - | - |
| Roasso Kumamoto (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.20 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 39% / 29% / 32% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 32% / 27% / 41% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.