Helmond Sport
HeraclesExpected goals 1.63 vs 1.67. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
2h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Heracles and +1.5 goals
22h agoGS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.63 vs Heracles 1.67.
That gives 37% home win, 25% draw, 38% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 23.4 pts, draw 5.9 pts, away -29.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Heracles and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport win | 37% | 2.71 | 7.00 | +158% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | 4.75 | +17% |
| Heracles win | 39% | 2.60 | 1.38 | -47% |
| Helmond Sport (draw no bet) | 49% | 2.05 | - | - |
| Heracles (draw no bet) | 51% | 1.96 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 37% / 25% / 38% | ||||
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.75 | 1.38 | 13% / 20% / 67% | 7.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.