Depor FC
Real CundinamarcaExpected goals 1.01 vs 1.58. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
3h agoDouble chance : draw or Real Cundinamarca
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Depor FC 1.01 vs Real Cundinamarca 1.58.
That gives 23% home win, 28% draw, 49% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -0.4 pts, draw -0.0 pts, away 0.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Real Cundinamarca
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depor FC win | 23% | 4.30 | 4.00 | -7% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | 3.30 | -11% |
| Real Cundinamarca win | 50% | 2.01 | 1.91 | -5% |
| Depor FC (draw no bet) | 32% | 3.13 | - | - |
| Real Cundinamarca (draw no bet) | 68% | 1.47 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 23% / 28% / 49% | ||||
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.91 | 23% / 28% / 49% | 7.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.