Latvia
MontenegroMy Model2
30%30%40%
xG 1.0-1.3U2.5BTTS no
Expected goals 1.04 vs 1.25. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoAPI-Football2
10%45%45%
Winner : Montenegro
21h agoBookmakers2
20%27%54%
U2.5BTTS no
Bet365 · 21h agoLatviaMontenegroSkonto, Riga · Referee Radoslav Gidzhenov · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Latvia 1.04 vs Montenegro 1.25.
That gives 30% home win, 30% draw, 40% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 10.3 pts, draw 2.8 pts, away -13.2 pts.
API-Football says: Winner : Montenegro
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia win | 30% | 3.37 | 4.75 | +41% |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | 3.50 | +6% |
| Montenegro win | 40% | 2.50 | 1.75 | -30% |
| Latvia (draw no bet) | 43% | 2.35 | - | - |
| Montenegro (draw no bet) | 57% | 1.74 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 30% / 30% / 40% | ||||
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 20% / 27% / 54% | 6.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Latvia
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Montenegro
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Latvia recent form
- D9/28/2026Latvia 0-0 Cyprus
- L9/25/2026Armenia 2-0 Latvia
- W3/31/2026Latvia 1-0 Gibraltar
- W3/26/2026Gibraltar 0-1 Latvia
- L11/16/2025Serbia 2-1 Latvia
Montenegro recent form
- W9/28/2026Armenia 2-3 Montenegro
- W9/25/2026Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus
- D6/5/2026Slovakia 2-2 Montenegro
- W6/1/2026Bulgaria 0-1 Montenegro
- L3/31/2026Montenegro 2-3 Slovenia
Head to head
- D9/7/2021Montenegro 0-0 Latvia
- L3/24/2021Latvia 1-2 Montenegro