Zvezda St. Petersburg
TverExpected goals 1.58 vs 1.62. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Tver
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Zvezda St. Petersburg 1.58 vs Tver 1.62.
That gives 37% home win, 24% draw, 39% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -0.8 pts, draw -2.2 pts, away 3.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Tver
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zvezda St. Petersburg win | 37% | 2.73 | 2.52 | -8% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | 3.56 | -11% |
| Tver win | 38% | 2.61 | 2.66 | +2% |
| Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw no bet) | 49% | 2.05 | - | - |
| Tver (draw no bet) | 51% | 1.96 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 37% / 24% / 39% | ||||
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.56 | 2.66 | 38% / 27% / 36% | 5.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.