Gumi Sportstoto W
Suwon FMC WExpected goals 0.81 vs 1.60. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoWinner : Suwon FMC W
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Gumi Sportstoto W 0.81 vs Suwon FMC W 1.60.
That gives 18% home win, 26% draw, 56% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 5.1 pts, draw 4.9 pts, away -10.1 pts.
API-Football says: Winner : Suwon FMC W
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gumi Sportstoto W win | 18% | 5.56 | 7.00 | +26% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | 4.33 | +16% |
| Suwon FMC W win | 55% | 1.81 | 1.40 | -23% |
| Gumi Sportstoto W (draw no bet) | 25% | 4.07 | - | - |
| Suwon FMC W (draw no bet) | 75% | 1.33 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 18% / 26% / 56% | ||||
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.40 | 13% / 21% / 66% | 8.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.