Incheon Red Angels W
Hwacheon KSPO WExpected goals 0.55 vs 1.25. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Hwacheon KSPO W and -3.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Incheon Red Angels W 0.55 vs Hwacheon KSPO W 1.25.
That gives 16% home win, 31% draw, 53% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -4.1 pts, draw 6.4 pts, away -2.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Hwacheon KSPO W and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon Red Angels W win | 15% | 6.48 | 4.50 | -31% |
| Draw | 32% | 3.14 | 3.60 | +15% |
| Hwacheon KSPO W win | 53% | 1.90 | 1.62 | -15% |
| Incheon Red Angels W (draw no bet) | 23% | 4.42 | - | - |
| Hwacheon KSPO W (draw no bet) | 77% | 1.29 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 16% / 31% / 53% | ||||
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.62 | 20% / 25% / 55% | 11.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.