Faroe Islands
SlovakiaExpected goals 1.00 vs 1.13. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : draw or Slovakia
20h agoReferee Mohammed Al-Hakim · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Faroe Islands 1.00 vs Slovakia 1.13.
That gives 31% home win, 31% draw, 38% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 14.9 pts, draw 6.7 pts, away -21.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Slovakia
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faroe Islands win | 31% | 3.25 | 5.75 | +77% |
| Draw | 32% | 3.15 | 3.90 | +24% |
| Slovakia win | 37% | 2.67 | 1.60 | -40% |
| Faroe Islands (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.22 | - | - |
| Slovakia (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.82 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 31% / 31% / 38% | ||||
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.60 | 16% / 24% / 59% | 5.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.