Cyprus
ArmeniaExpected goals 1.61 vs 1.27. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : draw or Armenia
20h agoReferee Mohammad Al-Emara · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Cyprus 1.61 vs Armenia 1.27.
That gives 45% home win, 26% draw, 30% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 3.3 pts, draw -2.3 pts, away -0.9 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Armenia
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus win | 44% | 2.25 | 2.30 | +2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 3.40 | -11% |
| Armenia win | 29% | 3.42 | 3.10 | -9% |
| Cyprus (draw no bet) | 60% | 1.66 | - | - |
| Armenia (draw no bet) | 40% | 2.52 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 26% / 30% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 41% / 28% / 31% | 5.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.