Bosnia & Herzegovina
SwedenExpected goals 1.42 vs 1.44. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Sweden
21h agoStadion Bilino Polje, Zenica · Referee Oleksiy Derevinskiy · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.42 vs Sweden 1.44.
That gives 36% home win, 26% draw, 37% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 1.6 pts, draw -0.7 pts, away -0.9 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Sweden
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina win | 36% | 2.77 | 2.70 | -2% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | 3.50 | -6% |
| Sweden win | 37% | 2.70 | 2.45 | -9% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw no bet) | 49% | 2.02 | - | - |
| Sweden (draw no bet) | 51% | 1.98 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 36% / 26% / 37% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 35% / 27% / 38% | 6.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.