Poland
RomaniaMy Model1
38%27%35%
xG 1.4-1.3U2.5BTTS yes
Expected goals 1.36 vs 1.30. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoAPI-Football1
45%45%10%
Double chance : Poland or draw
21h agoBookmakers1
62%23%15%
O2.5BTTS yes
Bet365 · 21h agoPolandRomaniaReferee Urs Schnyder · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Poland 1.36 vs Romania 1.30.
That gives 38% home win, 27% draw, 35% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -24.1 pts, draw 4.7 pts, away 19.4 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Poland or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland win | 37% | 2.67 | 1.50 | -44% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | 4.10 | +15% |
| Romania win | 35% | 2.89 | 6.00 | +108% |
| Poland (draw no bet) | 52% | 1.93 | - | - |
| Romania (draw no bet) | 48% | 2.08 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 38% / 27% / 35% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.00 | 62% / 23% / 15% | 7.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Poland
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Romania
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Poland recent form
- L9/28/2026Sweden 3-1 Poland
- D9/25/2026Poland 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- D6/3/2026Poland 2-2 Nigeria
- L5/31/2026Poland 0-2 Ukraine
- L3/31/2026Sweden 3-2 Poland
Romania recent form
- L9/28/2026Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina
- L9/25/2026Sweden 2-1 Romania
- W6/6/2026Romania 2-1 Wales
- D6/2/2026Georgia 1-1 Romania
- L3/31/2026Slovakia 2-0 Romania
Head to head
No past matches stored.