Ukraine
Northern IrelandExpected goals 1.09 vs 0.93. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
22h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Northern Ireland and -2.5 goals
22h agoŠtadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava · Referee Jasper Vergoote · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Ukraine 1.09 vs Northern Ireland 0.93.
That gives 38% home win, 32% draw, 30% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -11.6 pts, draw 3.3 pts, away 8.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Northern Ireland and -2.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine win | 38% | 2.64 | 1.90 | -28% |
| Draw | 33% | 3.06 | 3.30 | +8% |
| Northern Ireland win | 29% | 3.39 | 4.33 | +28% |
| Ukraine (draw no bet) | 56% | 1.78 | - | - |
| Northern Ireland (draw no bet) | 44% | 2.28 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 38% / 32% / 30% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.33 | 50% / 29% / 22% | 6.0% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.