Hungary
GeorgiaMy Model1
37%30%33%
xG 1.1-1.1U2.5BTTS no
Expected goals 1.15 vs 1.07. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoAPI-Football1
33%33%33%
No predictions available
21h agoBookmakers1
47%28%25%
U2.5BTTS no
Bet365 · 21h agoHungaryGeorgiaReferee Srdjan Jovanovic · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Hungary 1.15 vs Georgia 1.07.
That gives 37% home win, 30% draw, 33% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -9.9 pts, draw 1.8 pts, away 8.1 pts.
API-Football says: No predictions available
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary win | 36% | 2.74 | 2.00 | -27% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | 3.30 | +3% |
| Georgia win | 32% | 3.08 | 3.80 | +23% |
| Hungary (draw no bet) | 53% | 1.89 | - | - |
| Georgia (draw no bet) | 47% | 2.12 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 37% / 30% / 33% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 47% / 28% / 25% | 6.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Hungary
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Georgia
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Hungary recent form
- D9/28/2026Northern Ireland 0-0 Hungary
- L9/25/2026Hungary 0-1 Ukraine
- W6/9/2026Hungary 3-1 Kazakhstan
- W6/5/2026Hungary 2-1 Finland
- D3/31/2026Hungary 0-0 Greece
Georgia recent form
- D9/28/2026Georgia 0-0 Ukraine
- L9/25/2026Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland
- W6/5/2026Georgia 2-0 Bahrain
- D6/2/2026Georgia 1-1 Romania
- W3/29/2026Lithuania 0-2 Georgia
Head to head
No past matches stored.