Belgium
TürkiyeExpected goals 1.92 vs 1.20. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
22h agoDouble chance : Belgium or draw
22h agoStade Maurice Dufrasne, Liege · Referee Rohit Saggi · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: Belgium 1.92 vs Türkiye 1.20.
That gives 54% home win, 23% draw, 23% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -8.8 pts, draw 3.0 pts, away 5.8 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Belgium or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 53% | 1.87 | 1.53 | -18% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | 4.75 | +13% |
| Türkiye win | 23% | 4.38 | 5.50 | +26% |
| Belgium (draw no bet) | 70% | 1.43 | - | - |
| Türkiye (draw no bet) | 30% | 3.34 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 54% / 23% / 23% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 62% / 20% / 17% | 4.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.