France
ItalyExpected goals 1.51 vs 1.15. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : France or draw
21h agoReferee Jesus Gil Manzano · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Expected goals: France 1.51 vs Italy 1.15.
That gives 45% home win, 27% draw, 28% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -19.4 pts, draw 8.1 pts, away 11.3 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : France or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 45% | 2.24 | 1.45 | -35% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | 5.00 | +37% |
| Italy win | 28% | 3.58 | 5.50 | +54% |
| France (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.63 | - | - |
| Italy (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.59 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 27% / 28% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 64% / 19% / 17% | 7.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.